Overdrafted vs underdrafted: what mock drafts get wrong - 8/4/2026
We pulled real average draft position (ADP) data from thousands of mock drafts this week and lined it up against our own Vegas-informed rankings. Where the two disagree, one of two things is true: either the drafting public is missing something the numbers already know, or we're missing something the drafting public knows. We're not going to pretend it's always the first one — but here's where the real gaps are.
UNDERDRAFTED — The Market Is Sleeping On These
David Montgomery, RB (Detroit) — Our #9 RB by our numbers, currently going off the board at ADP 60.2 — RB20+ territory. That's a two-round-plus gap between what the numbers say and where he's actually being taken. If he's sitting there in round 5 or 6, that's close to free value.
Davante Adams, WR (Los Angeles Rams) — Fully priced by Vegas at 1,000.5 yards and 9.5 touchdowns, which puts him 6th among receivers with complete data on our board. ADP has him going at pick 32.5 — WR12+ range. A veteran changing teams always gets discounted by drafters who anchor to name recognition over current situation. The numbers haven't discounted him at all.
Mike Evans, WR (San Francisco) — Same story as Adams, arguably worse mispricing. Our system has him 8th among fully-priced receivers. ADP has him going at pick 60.6 — nearly WR20. A new-team veteran WR with a real touchdown line (6.5) shouldn't be falling this far.
Jalen Hurts, QB (Philadelphia) — Our #4 quarterback once rushing touchdowns are counted (a real weapon in 6-point-TD leagues). ADP has him as low as pick 69.5 — the 6th quarterback off the board. Anyone in a 6-point-TD league letting Hurts fall behind pure pocket passers is giving away rushing equivalency for free.
Jaxson Dart, QB (New York Giants) — Our #9 QB with real rushing production baked in. ADP has him going at pick 101.7 — QB11 territory. As a late-round streaming option or a backup plan if your first QB whiffs, this is a lot of value sitting untaken.
OVERDRAFTED — The Market Is Paying for Hype
Ashton Jeanty, RB (Las Vegas) — Going at ADP 15.6, which makes him the 9th running back off the board in real drafts. Our numbers rank him 13th at the position. This is the clearest rookie-hype tax on the board right now — draft capital and preseason buzz pulling him ahead of backs with better actual projected production.
Chase Brown, RB (Cincinnati) — ADP has him at pick 20.4 — a top-12 running back in real drafts. Our system has him 22nd at the position, near the bottom of our full running back list. That's one of the widest gaps we found anywhere on the board.
Omarion Hampton, RB (Los Angeles Chargers) — Another rookie getting drafted (ADP 20.6, RB11 range) well ahead of where our production numbers put him (14th among backs). Draft slot and opportunity hype are doing a lot of the work here, not proven output.
Puka Nacua, WR (Los Angeles Rams) — A smaller gap, but real: Nacua is going as the true WR1 in most drafts (ADP 2.8), ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase. Our numbers have those two essentially tied with him or slightly ahead. Not a bust call — just a coin flip the market has decided isn't a coin flip.
One Thing We Won't Pretend We Know
A handful of names — CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, George Pickens — look like massive overdrafts in our system right now. They're not, and we want to be straight about why: touchdown props haven't posted yet for these players in our data, so our numbers for them are yards-only and artificially low. Comparing an incomplete number to a real ADP and calling it a "bust" would be exactly the kind of guess-dressed-as-analysis we built this site to avoid. We'll revisit all four the moment real touchdown data exists.
The Takeaway
Rookies get overdrafted every single year because hype is easier to sell than history. Veterans on new teams get underdrafted every single year because name recognition lags a roster change. None of this is complicated — it's just what happens when a room full of people draft off vibes instead of the number. We'd rather hand you the number.
